机械功能参数下可靠度的最大熵分布和贝叶斯估计

The Maximal Entropy Distribution and Bayes Evaluation of Reliability under the Mechanical Function Parameters

  • 摘要: 根据贝叶斯统计推断理论,提出了运用蒙特卡洛计算机模拟技术构造机械应力、强度功能参数下的可靠度最大熵先验分布的原理和方法.通过对圆柱形螺旋弹簧的可靠度计算实例分析,表明了这一方法具有机械工程实用价值,也为今后机械行业制定分布类型统一规范理论计算机械可靠度提供一种探索思路和理论方法.

     

    Abstract: The paper is based on the Bayes statistical theory to conclude the principle and method by using Monte Carle computer similation technique,structuring the reliability maximal entropy distribution under the function parameters of mechanical stress and strength.This method,by means of the counting example analysis of the cylindrical spiral spring reliability,has shown that it has the applied value in machine engineerings,and can also provide a tentative tool and theory for determining the united formal theory of distribution kinds, to calculate mechanical reliability in machine engineering area in the future.

     

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