基于期权定价理论的矿业工程投资决策模型

Application of Option Pricing Theory to Decision-making on Mining Projects

  • 摘要: 矿业工程项目的投资受到许多不确定因素的影响,传统的净现值(NPV)法对工程项目的评价未考虑这些不确定因素.应用期权定价理论和方法,研究了矿产品价格的运行模式,在充分考虑矿业投资项目成本和收益的不确定性的基础上,建立了矿业工程投资决策模型,为矿山投资决策提供了新的思路和决策方法.

     

    Abstract: Investment in mining projects is influenced with many uncertainties such as coast, revenue etc. Traditional mining projects evaluation method, NPV, cannot be involved these uncertainties. Based on Option Pricing Theory(OPT), prices of mining outputs are modeled and incorporated into the analysis. Under consideration of uncertainties of mining costs and revenue, an option pricing model, a helpful approach and quantitative tools to the mining project evaluation, is developed.

     

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