基于集成案例推理方法的RH精炼钢水终点温度预测
End temperature prediction of molten steel in RH based on integrated case-based reasoning
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摘要: 针对RH工序终点钢水温度预测问题, 提出一种基于多元线性回归和遗传算法改进的集成案例推理方法.首先, 针对一般案例推理方法中缺少影响因素精选方法的问题, 利用多元线性回归进行属性约简;然后, 针对案例检索中相似度计算缺少权重计算方法的问题, 利用遗传算法进行权重优化;最后, 基于精简的影响因素和优化的权重, 利用改进灰色关联相似度进行案例检索, 实现RH终点钢水温度预测.利用某钢铁企业RH工序实际生产数据分别对多元线性回归、BP神经网络、一般案例推理方法和集成案例推理方法进行测试, 结果表明, 集成案例推理方法在多个温度区间比多元线性回归、BP神经网络和一般案例推理方法都有更高的预测精度.Abstract: In regards to the end temperature prediction of molten steel in RH refining, an integrated case-based reasoning (CBR) method based on multiple linear regression (MLR) and genetic algorithm (GA) was proposed.Firstly, MLR was used to intelligently simplify the number of attributes to modify the lack of methods in the accurate selection of influencing factors in general CBR method.Secondly, GA was used to optimize the attribute weights in order to resolve the lack of attribute weights calculation method for similarity computation in case retrieval.Lastly, the end temperature prediction of molten steel in RH refining was realized based on the simplified influencing factors and optimized weights, and using grey relational degree (GRD) in case retrieval.Testing was performed based on the actual production data in RH refining in steelmaking plant, and comparison between MLR method, BP neural network, general CBR method and integrated CBR method was carried out.The results show that integrated CBR method has better prediction accuracy than MLR method, BP neural network and general CBR method in multiple temperature ranges.