Three-dimensional stability evaluation of shallow loess landslides under rainfall and earthquake conditions
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摘要: 以兰州市大沙沟流域浅层黄土滑坡为研究对象，整合降雨渗透模型到黄土斜坡三维确定性模型，评价不同降雨和地震耦合效应下浅层黄土滑坡稳定性，并用混淆矩阵法和受试者工作特征曲线法（ROC）评价稳定性评价预测的结果。研究结果发现，耦合降雨入渗和地震的三维确定性模型，对流域尺度浅层黄土滑坡稳定性评价具有较好效果，能作为降雨和地震诱发黄土滑坡灾害评价和早期预警的工具，对加强不同尺度极端事件下黄土滑坡灾害时空灾害评价和预测具有重要参考价值。Abstract: Loess is widely distributed in the Northwest Plateau of China. One-third of the landslides in China occur in the loess area. Shallow loess landslides are especially widespread and frequent geological disasters, causing serious casualties and huge property damage. Under rainfall and loading, loess is prone to structural collapse and strength reduction. Therefore, shallow loess landslides distribute widely and occur frequently. Usually, rainfall and earthquakes are the frequent and active triggers for loess landslides. In recent years, a large number of loess landslides have been induced by the coupling of rainfall and earthquakes on the Loess Plateau. Although the coupling effect of earthquake and rainfall will seriously aggravate the instability probability and disaster risk of shallow loess landslides, there is still a lack of quantitative disaster evaluation research on such landslide events. This study chose the shallow loess landslide as the research object in the Dashagou catchment of Lanzhou city. The rainfall penetration model was integrated into a three-dimensional deterministic model of the loess slope, and the stability of the shallow loess landslide was evaluated in the study area with different rainfall and seismic coupling effects. The confusion matrix and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the results of the stability evaluation prediction. Results of this study reveal that the integration of a three-dimensional deterministic model of rainfall infiltration and earthquake effects has a good impact on the stability evaluation of shallow loess landslides at the watershed scale. Moreover, this model can be used as a tool for the assessment and early warning of rainfall and earthquake-induced loess landslides. The employment of the three-dimensional deterministic model considering a complicated slope and rainfall situation has great significance in the acquisition of results that are more accordant with the actual situation. It is of great reference value to strengthen the spatiotemporal disaster assessment and prediction of loess landslide disasters under different scales of extreme events.
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Keywords:
- shallow loess landslide /
- earthquake /
- rainfall /
- infiltration simulation /
- stability evaluation
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图 4 研究区的数字高程模型和滑坡分布图
Figure 4. Study area digital elevation model and landslide distribution map
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图 6 降雨作用下稳定性评价图。（a）无雨状态；（b）中雨状态；（c）暴雨状态
Figure 6. Stability evaluation under rainfall: (a) no rain; (b) moderate rain; (c) heavy rain
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图 7 地震作用下稳定性评价图。（a）Keq=0.05；（b）Keq=0.10；（c）Keq=0.20
Figure 7. Stability evaluation under earthquake: (a) Keq=0.05; (b) Keq=0.10; (c) Keq=0.20
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图 8 降雨地震作用下稳定性评价图。（a）中雨+0.05；（b）中雨+0.10；（c）中雨+0.20；（d）暴雨+0.05；(e)暴雨+0.10；（f）暴雨+0.20
Figure 8. Stability evaluation under rainfall and earthquake: (a) moderate rain +0.05; (b) moderate rain +0.10; (c) moderate rain+0.20; (d) heavy rain +0.05; (e) heavy rain +0.10; (f) heavy rain +0.20
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图 9 失稳斜坡体积统计图（a）和稳定性分级面积堆积图（b）（图中N指无雨，M指中雨，H指大雨，如M0.05指中雨和0.05地震加速度系数耦合情况）
Figure 9. Volume statistics of unstable slopes (a) and stacking diagrams of the graded area of stability (b) (N refers to no rain, M refers to moderate rain, and H refers to heavy rain. For example, M0.05 refers to the coupling of moderate rain and 0.05 earthquake acceleration coefficient)
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图 11 ROC曲线评价结果。（a）降雨情况；（b）地震情况；（c）耦合情况(图中N指无雨，M指中雨，H指大雨。如M0.05指中雨和0.05地震加速度系数耦合情况）
Figure 11. ROC curve evaluation results: (a) rainfall; (b) earthquake; (c) coupling (N refers to no rain, M refers to moderate rain, and H refers to heavy rain, M0.05 refers to the coupling of moderate rain and 0.05 earthquake acceleration coefficient)
表 1 敏感性分析参数变化范围
Table 1 Variation range of sensitivity analysis parameters
Item R /m C/kPa A/m2 W/N ϕ /(°) Keq u/kPa Range 3–15 10–50 10–2.0×104 100–2.0×106 10–30 0–0.2 −50–100 Standard 9 30 1.0×104 1.1×106 20 0.1 25 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 土参数取值表
Table 2 Soil parameter value table
C /
kPaγ /
(kN·m−3)ϕ/
(°)Permeability coefficient,
k /(m·s−1)Hydraulic diffusivity,
hd /(m3·s−1)30 15 29 2.4×10−6 2.4×10−4
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