基于数据驱动的转炉二吹阶段钢水温度动态预测模型

Dynamic, data-driven prediction model of molten steel temperature in the second blowing stage of a converter

  • 摘要: 转炉钢水温度是转炉终点控制的工艺参数之一,精确的钢水温度预测对转炉终点控制具有重要的指导意义。然而,以往的大多数转炉终点预测模型属于静态模型,只能够实现对转炉吹炼终点钢水温度的预测,无法实现动态预测,导致模型的作用有限。针对该问题,提出了一种基于数据驱动的转炉二吹阶段钢水温度动态预测模型。模型先通过新案例主吹阶段的工艺参数,基于案例推理算法找到历史案例库中相似案例。再利用相似案例的二吹阶段工艺参数并基于长短期记忆网络(Long short-term memory,LSTM)算法训练工艺参数与钢水温度的变化关系。然后利用训练好的LSTM模型,计算新案例二吹阶段的钢水温度变化。最后,利用某钢厂实际生产数据,研究了不同重用案例个数及神经元个数对模型预测精度的影响,实验结果表明:模型在重用案例个数为4,神经元个数为10时模型的预测精度最高,此时模型对钢水温度的预测误差在−5 ℃, 5 ℃、−10 ℃,10 ℃和−15 ℃,15 ℃的命中率分别达到40.33%、68.92%和88.33%,模型的性能高于传统二次方模型和三次方模型。

     

    Abstract: Molten steel temperature is a parameter in converter end-point control. Accurate prediction of molten steel temperature is crucial for converter end-point control. However, most of the previous end-point prediction models are static models, which can only predict the molten steel temperature at the end-point of converter blowing and cannot realize dynamic prediction, affording a limited role for these models. To solve this challenge, a data-driven prediction model of molten steel temperature in the second blowing stage in a converter is proposed. First, the model retrieves the similar cases in the historical case base through the process parameters in the main blowing stage of the new case, such as carbon content and temperature of TSC measurement, based on the case-based reasoning (CBR) algorithm. Second, the process parameters in the second blowing stage of the similar cases, such as oxygen flow, lance position, and argon flow, are used to train the relationship between the process parameters and the molten steel temperature based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. Third, the trained LSTM model is used to dynamically calculate the molten steel temperature in the second blowing stage of the new case. Finally, the actual production data is divided into five sets for cross-validation, and the model prediction accuracy changes are tested when the number of reuse cases ranges from 1 to 10, and the number of neurons is 5, 10, 15, and 20. The results show that, on the one hand, the prediction accuracy of the model first increases and then decreases with an increasing number of cases, and when the number of reused cases is 4, the prediction accuracy of the model is the highest, indicating that the number of cases is increased when training the model. Improving the prediction accuracy of the model is beneficial; however, the reference value of the case decreases with the similarity of the case, reducing the prediction accuracy of the model. Conversely, when the number of neurons is 10, the prediction accuracy of the model reaches it’s the highest value. The hit rate of the prediction error in the range of −5 ℃, 5 ℃, −10 ℃, 10 ℃, and −15 ℃, 15 ℃ reached 40.33%, 68.92%, and 88.33%, respectively. This paper also establishes the traditional quadratic model and cubic model as well as further proves the effectiveness of the model by comparing the three indicators of these models, namely, the RMSE, MSE, and hit rate.

     

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