DFA-ODENets:面向周期多阶段复杂系统的预测仿真框架

DFA-ODENets: Research on predictive simulation framework for periodic multistage complex systems

  • 摘要: 部分复杂系统受内外部因素影响在运行时会呈现出周期性的阶段变化,且在不同阶段具有完全不同的动态特性. 因此在使用数据驱动方法解决此类系统的预测和仿真问题时,使用单一结构模型难以准确地学习系统在不同阶段的动态特性. 本研究提出了基于确定性有限状态机-常微分方程网络的预测仿真框架(DFA-ODENets),以建模周期多阶段系统. 该模型由多个ODENet 组成,每个ODENet能够从不规则采样的序列数据中学习系统在各个阶段内的动态特性. 同时模型集成了基于确定性有限状态自动机思想的阶段转换预测器以实现模型预测时在不同阶段之间自动转换. 最后,将DFA-ODENet框架应用于某计算中心制冷系统的预测仿真场景中. 模型能够在给定系统运行过程中的服务器负载和环境温度下模拟系统运行过程,并对系统的制冷功率、进气口温度等主要输出变量进行预测. 其中,对于制冷系统能耗预测的平均相对误差在5%以内. 同时,利用制冷系统仿真模型优化了系统停止制冷时的温度设定值,通过仿真实验表明该优化最高可以节省18%的制冷能耗.

     

    Abstract: In some complex systems, because of the influence of internal and external factors, periodic changes occur among runtime stages, with each stage exhibiting distinct dynamics. When we employ data-driven parameterized methods to model and predict such systems, a unified model restricts the learning of the dynamics and transitions of multiple stages. To address the aforementioned challenges, inspired by the ordinary differential equations network (ODENet), this paper proposes a novel predictive simulation framework, referred to as the deterministic finite automaton ordinary differential equation net (DFA-ODENet). This framework is a continuous-time deep learning framework designed to model periodic multistage systems using irregularly–sampled historical system trajectories. The model includes two principal predictions for forecasting system dynamics and stage transition. In terms of learning the dynamics of the system, the model comprises several ODENets, whose number is determined from the number of stages of the modeled system. Each ODENet individually learns the continuous-time nonlinear dynamics within its respective stage. For learning the stage transitions, a stage transition predictor is employed to learn the duration of each stage from observational data. These stage transition predictors are prelabeled based on the prior knowledge of the system. During prediction, the stage transition predictor serves as a switcher for selecting the appropriate ODENet to predict the system outputs. Moreover, the framework incorporates a specific encoder–decoder structure, where the encoder solves the initial state based on historical system inputs and outputs, while the decoder predicts future system outputs using the inputs of the prediction window based on the solved initial state. To evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach, the encoder–decoder framework is employed in a cooling system of a real data center to simulate specific dynamic variables during operation. After providing multivariate operational data, including server power and environmental temperature, the model successfully simulates the system behavior in the expected operational patterns and predicts the open-loop output variables, such as power consumption and inlet air temperature. Notably, when the prediction horizon extends beyond 30 min, the mean absolute percentage error of the predicted energy consumption remains <5%. Concurrently, the optimization of the cooling temperature settings, which determines when to pause the cooling compressor, is achieved through the learned simulation model. Simulation experiments indicate that the cooling energy is saved up to 18% by adopting the inferred optimal temperature settings.

     

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