海外油气效益产量决策模型研究及应用

Development and application of an optimization model for overseas oil and gas production benefits

  • 摘要: 效益最大化是国际石油公司生产经营的永恒主题,油气产量是效益实现的载体,提高效益产量则是海外资产保值增值的必然途径. 针对目前国内公司对于海外项目开展提质增效的一系列做法,亟待建立一套能够兼容油价震荡、适应海外项目,并满足不同需求的综合效益产量决策方法,助力海外项目提质增效. 针对海外项目不同于国内项目的特点,分析了矿税制、产量分成、服务合同等不同油气项目合同模式下的效益实现特点及策略;并基于国内外调研分析,建立了一套不同效益条件(成本、产量等指标浮动)下的海外项目效益产量评价逻辑框架,以整体边际效益、现金流、利润优化目标为决策点,指导效益配产,实现资产增值保值;在兼顾收益性与风险性的基础上,创建全效益多维度效益产量决策模型并设计求解算法,在满足石油公司的投资、成本等多种约束条件下,考虑产量、利润、风险等多个决策目标,给出海外油气田项目开发的全维度最优决策区间,即帕累托解集. 将创建的模型应用于海外油田具体案例,给出一定决策目标下的帕累托效益最优决策区间,并对解集中的每个解进行深度分析比选,提出按不同决策偏好选取不同的对应解,从而满足效益经营决策的客观性及科学性. 最后考虑不确定性因素的影响,分情景对方案产量、油价、成本及投资等的不确定性进行分析,取得较好的应用效果,为制定海外油田效益产量优化方案、资产保值增值提供可靠的决策支持.

     

    Abstract: Benefit maximization is the enduring objective of production and management for international oil companies. This objective can only be realized through oil and gas production; thus, enhancing production efficiency inevitably leads to maintaining and increasing the value of overseas assets. Given the current practices adopted by domestic companies to improve the quality and efficiency of overseas projects, it is imperative to establish a set of comprehensive benefit and output optimization methods that can withstand oil price shocks, adapt to overseas projects, and cater to various other requirements, thereby serving to improve the quality and efficiency of overseas projects. Taking into account the differences between overseas and domestic projects, this paper analyzes the characteristics and strategies for realizing benefits under different financial and tax regimes, such as mine tax contracts, output-sharing contracts, and service contracts. A framework for evaluating the benefits and outputs of overseas projects under different conditions (such as cost, output, and other floating indicators) is established based on research and analysis conducted at home and overseas. Overall marginal benefit, cash flow, and profit optimization objectives are used to guide benefit allocation to achieve asset appreciation and preservation. A multidimensional and multi-objective decision-making model and an algorithm for benefit maximization are developed by considering both profitability and risk. A Pareto solution set is provided for a comprehensive optimal decision-making interval of overseas oil and gas field project development by considering the constraints of investment, cost, and block in conjunction with multiple decision-making objectives such as production, profit, and risk. This model was applied to specific cases of overseas oil fields under certain decision objectives, and the Pareto optimal decisions were generated. An in-depth analysis and comparison of each solution in the solution set was conducted. Appropriate selection of different solutions is advocated for different decision preferences to ensure the objectivity and scientific nature of profit management decisions. Finally, considering the influence of uncertainty factors, the scenario-based uncertainty analysis of the project output, oil price, cost, and investment has proved effective and generally provides reliable support for decision making in the context of overseas oilfield efficiency and plans for production optimization and high-quality development. The benefit production model and solving algorithm for overseas oilfield projects developed in this paper can provide a theoretical basis and support for decision making by oil field companies to optimize the production benefits of overseas oil fields and improve profitability.

     

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