多健康因子下SABO-ELM模型锂离子电池剩余寿命预测

SABO-ELM model for remaining life prediction of lithium-ion batteries under multiple health factors

  • 摘要: 锂离子电池剩余使用寿命(Remaining useful life,RUL)的准确预测对于汽车电池管理系统至关重要,然而RUL预测的准确性和可靠性受到增量容量的影响. 本文提出了一种将先进的信号处理、健康特征提取和机器学习优化技术相结合的RUL预测新方法. 首先,基于锂离子电池的充放电循环,从原始锂离子电池性能曲线中提取增量容量曲线,采用卡尔曼滤波对曲线进行降噪,引入斯皮尔曼系数法分析其与容量的相关性. 其次,针对极限学习机(Extreme learning machine,ELM)参数易陷入局部最优导致模型预测性能稳定性不强的问题,提出减法平均算法(Subtraction-average-based optimizer,SABO)对ELM模型中的权值和偏置阈值进行优化. 最后,采用美国国家航天局(NASA)公开的电池数据集对所提方法进行验证,结果表明,与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)相比,RUL预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别降低了52.03%和51.98%,均方根误差(RMSE)降低了42.99%,验证了所提模型的有效性和准确性.

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is critical for the efficient and reliable operation of automotive battery management systems, which are crucial in the new energy sector. However, RUL prediction accuracy is affected by factors such as capacity regeneration and model performance. This paper introduces a novel approach that combines advanced signal processing, health feature extraction, and machine learning optimization to improve RUL predictive precision for lithium-ion batteries. This paper improves the accurate prediction of the RUL from the following five aspects. First, the incremental capacity (IC) curve, derived from the charge–discharge cycles, is extracted from battery performance data. Since the IC curve is highly sensitive to battery degradation trends, it is a valuable feature for predicting RUL. Second, to mitigate noise and irregularities in raw IC data, a Kalman filter method is applied to denoise the curves, improving the reliability and clarity of the extracted features. Third, 10 health factors (HFs) related to capacity are extracted, and their correlation with battery capacity is analyzed using the Spearman correlation method. This statistical analysis method identifies the most relevant and informative HFs, eliminating weakly correlated ones to reduce model complexity and improve performance. By eliminating HFs with weak correlations, the computational complexity of the prediction model is reduced, while its performance is further refined. Fourth, the extreme learning machine (ELM), known for its fast training speed and good generalization, is optimized to address challenges such as instability caused by random initialization of weights and biases. Using the subtraction-average-based optimization (SABO) method, a novel RUL prediction method is proposed. The SABO algorithm optimizes the weights and bias thresholds of the ELM model, which effectively reduces the risk of local optima and improves its predictive performance and stability. The proposed model is validated against different training datasets published by NASA. Experimental results show that the approach outperforms alternatives such as long short-term memory (LSTM), ELM, and beluga whale optimization (BWO) for ELM at different prediction starting points.This method has good accuracy in predicting the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of RUL in B05, B06, and B07 data sets and is the least error-prone among all models. Compared with the LSTM deep learning model, this method reduces the MAPE index of the RUL prediction error by 51.98%, significantly improving the overall performance. The MAE index decreased by 52.03%, and the RMSE index decreased by 42.99%. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method in improving the efficiency of RUL prediction.

     

/

返回文章
返回