工业智能系统前沿征稿+基于Lasso回归稀疏多项式混沌展开的配电网风险评估

Risk assessment of distribution network based on sparse polynomial chaos expansion with Lasso regression

  • 摘要: 在能源低碳化转型背景下,针对高新能源占比配电网风险评估中存在的潮流不确定性表征及量化问题,提出了一种基于Lasso回归稀疏多项式混沌展开的配电网风险评估方法。通过引入多项式混沌展开理论,建立输入与响应的代理模型替代传统随机潮流中的非线性潮流计算模型。由于代理模型随着变量维数的增加引入了大量对响应无影响的多项式,提出了多项式稀疏化处理方法。首先,利用多项式展开系数分析变量的一阶一次、一阶二次及二阶多项式的灵敏度,从多项式灵敏度的角度进行稀疏。进而基于Lasso回归,将变量按影响大小进行排序筛选,从变量的影响贡献度角度进行稀疏。然后,建立配电网静态安全风险评估指标,用所提方法对风险指标进行量化分析。最后,依托IEEE 33和IEEE 118节点测试系统进行算例仿真,验证了所提稀疏化方法的有效性,在兼顾计算准确性的同时,极大地提升了配电网在线风险评估的效率。

     

    Abstract: Under the context of energy decarbonization and transformation, addressing the issues of flow uncertainty characterization and quantification in risk assessment of distribution networks with a high proportion of new energy sources, a method based on Lasso regression and sparse polynomial chaos expansion for risk assessment of distribution networks has been proposed. By introducing polynomial chaos expansion theory, an auxiliary model is established to replace the traditional nonlinear power flow calculation model in stochastic power flow analysis. Since the auxiliary model introduces a large number of polynomials that do not affect the response as the number of variables increases, a polynomial sparsification method is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the polynomial expansion coefficients, the sensitivity of variables to first-order linear, first-order quadratic, and second-order polynomials is evaluated, and sparsification is performed from the perspective of polynomial sensitivity. Subsequently, based on Lasso regression, the variables are ranked and selected according to their impact magnitude, allowing for sparsification from the perspective of the contribution of variables. Then, static security risk assessment indices for the distribution network were established, and the proposed method was used to quantify these risk indices. Finally, case simulations were conducted using the IEEE 33-node and IEEE 118-node test systems to verify the effectiveness of the proposed sparsification method. This method significantly improved the efficiency of online risk assessment for the distribution network while maintaining computational accuracy.

     

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