基于Lasso回归稀疏多项式混沌展开的配电网风险评估

Risk assessment of distribution network based on sparse polynomial chaos expansion with Lasso regression

  • 摘要: 在能源低碳化转型背景下,针对高新能源占比配电网风险评估中存在的潮流不确定性表征及量化问题,提出了一种基于最小绝对收缩与选择算子(Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,Lasso)回归稀疏多项式混沌展开的配电网风险评估方法. 通过引入多项式混沌展开理论,建立输入与响应的代理模型替代传统随机潮流中的非线性潮流计算模型. 由于代理模型随着变量维数的增加引入了大量对响应无影响的多项式,提出了多项式稀疏化处理方法. 首先,利用多项式展开系数分析变量的一阶一次、一阶二次及二阶多项式的灵敏度,从多项式灵敏度的角度进行稀疏. 进而基于Lasso回归,将变量按影响大小进行排序筛选,从变量的影响贡献度角度进行稀疏. 然后,建立配电网静态安全风险评估指标,用所提方法对风险指标进行量化分析. 最后,依托IEEE 33、IEEE 118及SimBench-322 节点综合配电网进行算例仿真,验证了所提稀疏化方法的有效性,在兼顾计算准确性的同时,极大地提升了配电网在线风险评估的效率.

     

    Abstract: In the context of power-system decarbonization and the rising share of distributed renewables, risk assessment for distribution networks faces two coupled difficulties: probabilistic power-flow models are expensive for online use, and high-dimensional uncertainties inflate surrogate models with numerous irrelevant terms. This paper proposes a distribution-network risk-assessment approach that combines sparse polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) regression to obtain a compact surrogate for probabilistic power flow and subsequent risk quantification. This method replaces the nonlinear power-flow solver in stochastic simulations with a data-driven PCE surrogate that maps uncertain inputs, such as renewable generation, load levels, and equipment parameters, to nodal voltages and branch flows. A two-stage sparsification strategy is used to control the model size while preserving fidelity. First, term-level sensitivities computed from the estimated PCE coefficients prune polynomials that contribute negligibly to the response; therefore, dominant first-order effects and essential second-order interactions are retained, while redundant bases are removed. Second, Lasso regression ranks and selects the remaining variables and basis functions by contribution magnitude, yielding an interpretable expansion with reduced variance and improved numerical stability. Input correlations among random variables are modeled via the Nataf transformation; therefore, training and evaluation are performed under a realistic joint distribution rather than an independence assumption. Based on the surrogate outputs, static security risk indices are constructed for distribution networks. The indices quantify the voltage-limit and branch-flow-limit risks by combining two elements: the probability of limit violation and associated severity on the physical magnitude scale. Node- and branch-level indices are first computed and then aggregated into system-level indicators through a consistent summation scheme to reflect the overall risk of the operating point while maintaining a clear physical interpretation. This construction supports comparison across scenarios and operating conditions without introducing ad hoc weighting. The methodology was validated on three systems: the IEEE 33-node and IEEE 118-node benchmarks and a large-scale 322-node comprehensive distribution network. For each system, uncertain inputs were characterized by empirical distributions and cross-correlations, and training and validation samples were generated accordingly and used to fit and evaluate the sparse PCE surrogate. The results show that the surrogate reproduced the distributions of nodal voltages and branch flows obtained by conventional probabilistic power flow while requiring only a small subset of candidate polynomial bases. The two-stage sparsification substantially reduced the number of retained terms compared to dense PCE constructions, which lowers the training cost and accelerates the evaluation for risk analysis. The risk indices computed from the surrogate closely tracked those from full stochastic simulations across nodes and branches, and the system-level indicators preserved the same trends under variations in renewable output, load level, and correlation strength. This method remained stable as the network size increased from tens to several hundred nodes, supporting its applicability in realistic studies. In summary, the Lasso-based sparse PCE framework provides a compact surrogate for probabilistic power flow and a coherent set of static security risk indices for distribution networks with high renewable penetration. By combining term-level sensitivity pruning, Lasso-based selection, and correlation modeling through the Nataf transformation, this approach preserves essential physics while alleviating the dimensionality burden. Case studies on IEEE 33, IEEE 118, and a 322-node network indicate that the method maintains assessment accuracy and significantly improves computational efficiency, thereby enabling online or near-real-time risk evaluation and operation-oriented decision support.

     

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