汽车产业全生命周期碳足迹评价及降碳策略

Carbon footprint assessment and carbon reduction strategies in the full life cycle of the automotive industry

  • 摘要: 全球碳排放总量中能源消耗相关排放占比超过70%,而交通运输业作为关键排放来源贡献约20%的碳排放,其中道路车辆占比则高达80%,成为全球碳减排行动的核心突破口. 本研究将汽车全生命周期划分为生产、使用和报废阶段三个阶段. 系统对比分析了近十年燃油车、纯电动汽车、混合动力汽车及燃料电池汽车四类车型在三个阶段的碳排放特征,并提出针对性降碳策略. 结果显示,碳排放各个阶段性存在差异,不同车型的碳排放表现同样存在明显区别. 生产阶段贡献汽车生命周期排放的25% ~ 50%,纯电动车和燃料电池车占比最高. 使用阶段碳排放占50% ~ 70%,是最重要的碳排放来源,传统燃油车碳排放强度约为纯电动车与燃料电池车的5 ~ 8倍. 报废阶段碳排放占7% ~ 22%,新能源汽车的电池回收为主要排放源. 基于上述汽车全生命周期结果的差异,本研究提出工艺优化、能源替代、技术创新三位一体协同降碳路径,识别出七类关键减排点,从成本效益和实施难度维度评估并提出短期、中期、长期分阶段实施路径. 短期优先推进轻量化、先进焊接、低能耗涂装与拆解回收,中期聚焦电池绿色合成与材料闭环回收,长期加速清洁燃料替代. 本研究以全生命周期为主线,结合分阶段路线与成本效益评估,为汽车产业碳中和提供系统化、可量化的科学依据,并为政策制定与企业投资决策提供可执行参考,加速产业低碳转型.

     

    Abstract: Energy-related emissions account for > 70% of the global total. Against this backdrop, the transport sector stands out as a major contributor, responsible for approximately 20% of worldwide carbon emissions. Within the transport system, road vehicles dominate the emissions profile, representing about 80% of transport-related emissions. In other words, road transport constitutes the primary source of carbon emissions within the broader transport domain. This study divided the automobile life cycle into production, use, and end-of-life, and conducted a systematic comparison of the carbon profiles of four vehicle types (internal-combustion vehicles, battery-electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel-cell electric vehicles) over the past decade, followed by targeted mitigation strategies. The results showed that there exist differences in carbon emissions at different stages and there are also significant differences in the carbon emission performance of different vehicle models. Production contributes 25%–50% of life cycle emissions, with battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles burdened most by traction-battery and fuel-cell manufacturing. The use stage contributes 50%–70% and is the dominant source, where conventional internal-combustion vehicles exhibit emission intensities approximately five to eight times those of battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles. End-of-life contributes 7%–22%, and for new-energy vehicles, battery recovery is the primary source. Building on these life cycle differences, we propose an integrated pathway that combines process optimization, energy substitution, and technological innovation to identify high-leverage abatement points, coordinate source reduction with in-process efficiency gains and end-of-life valorization, and enable system-level, coordinated decarbonization. Seven priority levers were identified: lightweighting, welding processes, coating processes, green battery synthesis, clean-fuel substitution, materials recycling and circularity, and dismantling and recovery; and each is evaluated by cost-effectiveness and implementation difficulty then mapped to a phased roadmap. In the short term from 2025 to 2030, deployment should prioritize mature options with short payback periods: lightweighting, advanced welding, low-energy and low-volatile-organic-compound coating, and dismantling and recycling, to scale rapidly while complying with the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and China’s battery-recycling policies. In the medium term from 2030 to 2040, the focus shifts to green battery synthesis and closed-loop materials recovery, with all-solid-state batteries and dry-electrode processes completing engineering validation and moving into volume production from 2035, while China’s closed-loop recovery system aligns with the 95% material-recovery target and proceeds through a five- to eight-year capital payback cycle. In the long term from 2040 to 2060, the priority is clean-fuel substitution that depends on green-hydrogen production, hydrogen-refueling infrastructure, and full life cycle biofuel supply chains, all currently constrained by infrastructure costs and the economics of renewable hydrogen, with commercial scale-up expected progressively after 2050 to enable effective substitution for fossil fuels. Anchored in a comprehensive full life cycle perspective and supported by stage-wise implementation roadmaps together with rigorous cost-benefit evaluations, this study developed an integrated, end-to-end framework for coordinated emissions reduction spanning the production, use, and end-of-life phases of automobiles. It provides systematic, transparent, and quantitatively verifiable evidence to underpin carbon-neutrality objectives across the automotive industry, while simultaneously furnishing practical, implementable, and decision-grade guidance for policy formulation and corporate investment planning, thereby accelerating the sector’s transition along credible, scalable, and durable low-carbon pathways.

     

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