融合TWP与时频双通道FxLSTM架构的短期风电功率预测方法

Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Method Integrating TWP and Time-Frequency Dual-channel FxLSTM Architecture

  • 摘要: 为提升风电功率预测精度,支撑电力系统的科学管理与高效调配,本文提出一种融合时变小波频域处理模块(Time-Variant Wavelet-Frequency Processing Module,TWP)与时频双通道FxLSTM架构的短期风电功率预测方法。首先,引入时变滤波经验模态分解(TVF-EMD)算法,增强信号有效特征,大幅削弱干扰成分;其次,设计一维多级小波卷积(1D-WTConv)模块,提取时间序列中的长短期依赖关系及局部波动特征;再者,构建时频双通道FxLSTM 架构,实现时序动态信息与关键频率成分的深度耦合;最后,基于Tukey窗函数和Welch功率谱密度估计开展频谱分析,为频段分层处理提供可靠物理基础。本研究采用宁夏与内蒙古风电场跨季节实测数据进行验证。实验结果表明,在宁夏风电场测试集上,模型的均方根误差(RMSE)为0.471 MW,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.331 MW,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为1.496 %。在内蒙古高频湍流复杂场景下,相较于传统预测方法,本文模型的预测误差有明显降幅。研究结果证实,融合TWP与时频双通道FxLSTM架构的风电功率预测模型在预测精度与泛化性能方面表现卓越,为高波动性场景下的风电功率预测提供了创新且实用的解决方案。

     

    Abstract: Accurate wind power prediction is critical for enhancing grid stability and optimizing energy dispatch in renewable power systems. To address the challenges of non-stationarity, noise interference, and multi-scale dynamics in wind power sequences, this paper proposes a novel Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Method Integrating TWP and Time-Frequency Dual-channel FxLSTM Architecture. The method integrates adaptive signal decomposition, multi-scale feature extraction, and joint time-frequency modeling to achieve high-precision predictions under complex meteorological conditions.?First, to mitigate mode mixing and noise contamination, Time-Varying Filtering Empirical Mode Decomposition (TVF-EMD) is employed for signal decomposition and reconstruction. This method adaptively designs local cutoff frequencies using instantaneous amplitude and frequency information, followed by B-spline approximation to construct time-varying filters. Effective Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) are selected via correlation coefficient thresholds (e.g., ρ > 0.1), suppressing high-frequency turbulence while preserving ultra-low-frequency (<0.5/day) and diurnal-cycle (0.8–1.2/day) components that dominate wind power dynamics.?Second, a One-Dimensional Multi-level Wavelet Convolutional feature extraction mechanism (1D-WTConv) is designed to capture multi-scale dependencies. Leveraging Haar wavelet bases, it recursively decomposes input sequences into low-frequency (L) and high-frequency (H) subcomponents. Depthwise convolutions with compact kernels are applied hierarchically, followed by inverse wavelet transforms for feature reconstruction. This approach resolves limitations of fixed-receptive-field CNNs and gradient-vanishing RNNs, efficiently modeling both long-term trends and transient fluctuations.?Third, a dual-channel architecture (FxLSTM) synergizes temporal dynamics and frequency-domain enhancements: The FxLSTM module combines scalar-memory sLSTM (with exponential gating and state normalization) and matrix-memory mLSTM (with covariance update rules). sLSTM enhances robustness to abrupt changes (e.g., cold surges), while mLSTM captures spatial correlations among multi-variate meteorological factors (wind speed, temperature, humidity) via fully parallelizable training. The Frequency-Enhanced Channel Attention Mechanism (FECAM) replaces Fourier transforms with Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) to avoid Gibbs artifacts. It partitions features into subgroups, assigns frequency-specific DCT components (0.375–8 cycles/day), and recalibrates channel-wise weights to amplify dominant frequencies (e.g., diurnal cycles) while suppressing turbulent noise (4–8 cycles/day).?Experiments on real-world datasets from Ningxia and Inner Mongolia wind farms (15-min resolution, cross-seasonal validation) demonstrate proposed method’s superiority: For Ningxia, it achieves RMSE=0.471 MW, MAE=0.331 MW, and MAPE=1.496%, outperforming benchmarks (e.g., xLSTM: MAPE=8.563%; BiLSTM: MAPE=9.321%). In high-turbulence scenarios (Inner Mongolia), prediction errors are reduced by >40% (MAPE from 6.123% to 2.431% in October). The proposed framework provides a new paradigm for high-fluctuation wind power forecasting, with significant implications for grid management and renewable integration.

     

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