基于TCN-LSTM-AAE和DPGMM的新型电力系统运行模式分析

Operating Modes Analysis for New Power Systems Based on TCN-LSTM-AAE and DPGMM

  • 摘要: 可再生能源渗透率的不断增加正深刻改变电力系统的运行机理,使其呈现出更强的复杂性、非线性与动态特征。这一趋势标志着电力系统正加速向新型电力系统演进。传统以潮流方程和经验规则为基础的运行方式分析手段在这一背景下已难以胜任。针对高可再生能源渗透下运行状态频繁演化的挑战,本文提出了一种数据驱动的新型电力系统运行模式分析框架。该框架包括面向不同分布数据的离群点检测与缺失值填补、构建基于时序卷积与长短期记忆网络的对抗自编码器用于历史数据扩充、结合特征提取的狄利克雷过程高斯混合模型实现运行模式数量的自适应识别,以及运行模式的降维可视化展示。基于中国华北地区某市电力系统的实际运行数据开展的实验验证表明,该方法在复杂运行环境中表现出良好的识别效果。研究结果进一步揭示,随着可再生能源渗透率的提升,系统运行方式的数量和离散程度显著增加,动态行为呈现出更强的非线性演化趋势与不确定性,运行模式频繁跃迁,亟需引入更具智能性与灵活性的调控策略以保障系统的稳定与高效运行。

     

    Abstract: With the rapid integration of renewable energy and the continuous expansion of its installed capacity, the operational mechanisms of modern power systems are undergoing profound and fundamental transformations. These developments have introduced greater variability and volatility into system behavior, causing operational states to become increasingly complex, nonlinear, and dynamic. Consequently, conventional operating mode identification approaches, which are predominantly based on empirical rules and static system assumptions, are proving inadequate in capturing the evolving pattens of new power system, especially under high levels of uncertainty and renewable penetration. To address the increasingly prominent challenges in the new power system, this paper proposes a systematic and data-driven framework for identifying and analyzing operating modes. The framework begins with a data preprocessing phase that fully accounts for the characteristics of multi-source data. Targeted strategies for outlier detection and missing value imputation are applied based on the statistical distribution of different variables, which ensures the integrity, consistency, and reliability of the input data at the source and lays a solid foundation for subsequent modeling and analysis. To compensate for data sparsity and imbalance, which are common under high renewable penetration conditions, the framework incorporates a generative module based on an Adversarial Autoencoder that integrates Temporal Convolutional Networks and Long Short-Term Memory. Through this hybrid architecture, the model can effectively learn the latent properties of the data while generating realistic and diverse augmented samples to address the problems of data imbalance. Additionally, a cosine annealing learning rate schedule is employed during model training to enhance learning stability, prevent convergence to local minima, and improve overall training efficiency and representational quality. To address the issue of high-dimensional data and extract essential latent representations, an Autoencoder is pre-trained to compress the operational data into a low-dimensional feature space. The resulting compact and informative features are then used as input to a Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model, which is employed for clustering and operation mode identification. As a nonparametric Bayesian approach, DPGMM is capable of adaptively inferring the appropriate number of clusters without requiring manual specification. Such adaptive capability greatly enhances the model's flexibility, scalability, and generalization capacity. Furthermore, the framework employs the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection algorithm to perform dimensionality reduction and visualize the distribution of operating modes in a three-dimensional space, thereby enabling more profound insights into the structural evolution of the system’s operational states. The proposed framework is validated using real-world operational data from a power system in a city in North China. Experimental results demonstrate that the method exhibits excellent performance in identifying operation modes under complex and highly dynamic conditions. Specifically, as the penetration level of renewable energy increases, both the number and dispersion of operating modes increase significantly. The number of modes rises from three in low-penetration scenarios to six under medium penetration and up to nine in high-penetration cases. Quantitative analysis further reveals that system dynamics evolve with stronger nonlinearity and increased uncertainty, and that transitions between modes become substantially more random. These findings highlight the limitations of traditional rule-based dispatch strategies and emphasize the urgent need for intelligent, adaptive, and flexible control mechanisms to ensure the safe, stable, and efficient operation of future power systems.

     

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