基于IDBO-BP神经网络的巷道围岩松动圈厚度预测模型

IDBO–BP neural-network-based model for predicting the thickness of the excavation damaged zone of roadway surrounding rock

  • 摘要: 松动圈厚度是巷道围岩稳定性评价不可或缺的关键参数,准确预测松动圈厚度对于地下工程安全具有重要意义. 本文选取能够充分反映松动圈特征的五个关键因素,巷道埋深、巷道跨度、掘进断面积、岩体单轴抗压强度以及节理发育程度作为松动圈厚度的预测指标. 在蜣螂优化(DBO)算法的基础上,通过引入Chebyshev混沌映射、黄金正弦策略和动态权重系数,构建了一种多策略融合的改进蜣螂优化算法(IDBO),并将其用于优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值,从而构建了基于IDBO–BP神经网络的松动圈厚度预测模型. 利用102组松动圈实例数据对该模型的适用性和可靠性进行了验证. 同时,采用Spearman相关性分析评估了各预测指标与松动圈厚度之间的相关程度,并通过R2、MAE、MBE和RMSE等指标对IDBO–BP神经网络模型的预测性能进行了系统评价. 最后,将所构建模型应用于某金矿不同埋深巷道的松动圈厚度预测,以进一步验证其工程应用效果. 结果表明:在5个预测指标中,节理发育程度与松动圈厚度的相关性最强,掘进断面积最弱;相比于BP和DBO–BP模型,IDBO–BP预测模型对于训练集与测试集的预测位置偏离程度更小,预测精度更高;与SVM、RF、PLS、BP、DBO–BP相比,IDBO–BP的R2值最接近1,MAE、MBE和RMSE值最小,表明IDBO–BP预测性能最好、迭代速度最快,预测精度最高;IDBO–BP模型对三个水平巷道的松动圈厚度预测平均误差为8.2%,相较于BP和DBO–BP模型,分别减少了9.3%和5.3%,预测精度得到较大提升,进一步证明了所提模型的可靠性.

     

    Abstract: The accurate estimation of the thickness of the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) is a fundamental and indispensable parameter for evaluating the stability of roadway surrounding rock and for ensuring the safety of underground engineering structures. In this study, five key factors that sufficiently reflect the characteristics of the EDZ were carefully selected as predictive indicators. These factors include the burial depth of the roadway, the span of the roadway, the cross-sectional area of the excavation, the uniaxial compressive strength of the rock mass, and the degree of joint development. Based on the dung beetle optimization (DBO) algorithm, a multi-strategy enhanced version, referred to as the improved dung beetle optimization algorithm (IDBO), was developed by integrating Chebyshev chaotic mapping, the golden sine strategy, and a dynamic weighting coefficient. The integration of these methods and strategies provides a reinforced optimization mechanism within the DBO framework, which improves both the global search capability and the overall convergence behavior of the algorithm. Subsequent use of the IDBO algorithm to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of a backpropagation (BP) neural network resulted in the construction of the IDBO–BP neural network model, which is specifically designed for predicting the thickness of the EDZ. A total of 102 sets of EDZ engineering case data were used to verify the applicability, reliability, and predictive accuracy of the proposed model. Spearman correlation analysis—applied to examine the degree of association between the selected predictive indicators and EDZ thickness—allows for a quantitative evaluation of the relative influence of each factor. Several commonly used evaluation metrics, including the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean bias error (MBE), and root mean square error (RMSE), were employed to systematically assess the predictive performance of the IDBO–BP neural network model. Together, these evaluation metrics provide a comprehensive assessment of the prediction accuracy, generalization ability, and overall performance of the model. Application of the model to predict the EDZ thickness of roadway sections with different burial depths in a gold mine provided additional verification of its practical engineering applicability and predictive effectiveness. The results indicate that among the five predictive indicators, the degree of joint development exhibits the strongest correlation with the EDZ thickness, whereas the cross-sectional area of the excavation demonstrates the weakest correlation. Compared with the BP and DBO–BP models, the IDBO–BP model demonstrates markedly smaller deviations for both the training and testing datasets by reflecting improved predictive accuracy and more reliable behavior. When compared with other widely used models, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), partial least squares (PLS), BP, and DBO–BP, the R2 value of the IDBO–BP model is closest to 1, while this model simultaneously yields the lowest MAE, MBE, and RMSE values. Moreover, when applied to three horizontal roadways, the IDBO–BP model has an average prediction error of 8.2%, which represents reductions of 9.3% and 5.3% relative to the BP and DBO–BP models, respectively. These findings collectively indicate that the proposed IDBO-BP model has high predictive performance, iteration speed, and reliability, which further confirm its practical applicability and engineering value.

     

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