基于通道掩码的时频解耦多变量时序预测

Channel-Masked Time-Frequency Disentanglement for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

  • 摘要: 多变量时间序列预测是智能调度、风险防控与资源配置的核心技术. 尽管Transformer模型特征表达能力强大,但在通道建模与监督机制上仍存在不足. 一方面,直接对所有变量进行统一建模容易引入大量冗余或弱相关通道,干扰关键特征提取. 另一方面,标签序列间存在的自回归结构常被忽略,导致预测过程中监督偏差累积、泛化性能下降. 为此,本文提出一种基于通道掩码的时频解耦预测模型(CM-TFD). 该模型采用主辅双分支结构:主分支融合混合专家机制与时频级联模块,挖掘多尺度时序特征. 辅分支构建可学习通道掩码,在频域中筛除冗余通道,并通过软稀疏机制调控主分支建模路径. 同时,引入跨域动态权重调整机制,联合优化时频域损失. 通过显式建模标签自相关结构,有效缓解了监督偏差问题. 实验结果表明,CM-TFD 模型在电力、交通、金融等多个真实数据集上均取得了优异表现,不仅验证了其有效性与泛化性,同时也展示了在噪声环境下的鲁棒性与抗扰动能力.

     

    Abstract: Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is a pivotal technique for intelligent scheduling, risk control, and resource allocation. Despite their powerful representational capacity, Transformer-based models often struggle with two key challenges in MTSF: ineffective channel modeling due to redundant or weakly correlated variables, and supervision bias stemming from the neglect of label auto-correlation. To overcome these challenges, we propose the Channel-Masked Time-Frequency Disentangled model (CM-TFD). Our framework features a primary-auxiliary dual-branch architecture that synergistically models temporal patterns and channel relationships. The primary branch integrates a Mixture of Experts mechanism with a time-frequency cascading module to capture multi-scale temporal features. Simultaneously, the auxiliary branch constructs a learnable channel mask in the frequency domain to filter out redundant information and dynamically guides the primary branch via a soft sparsity mechanism. Furthermore, we introduce a cross-domain dynamic weight adjustment mechanism to jointly optimize time-domain and frequency-domain loss functions. By explicitly modeling the label auto-correlation structure, our method effectively mitigates supervision bias. Extensive experiments on nine real-world datasets from diverse domains (e.g., electricity, traffic, and finance) demonstrate that CM-TFD achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines. The results not only verify the model's effectiveness and generalization capability but also highlight its robustness against noise and perturbations.

     

/

返回文章
返回