融合特征聚类与SFOA-TimeMixer的短期光伏功率预测

Research on Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Feature Fusion Clustering and SFOA-TimeMixer

  • 摘要: 针对光伏短期功率预测中因气象条件非线性变化引起的预测误差显著增大的问题,提出了融合特征聚类与SFOA-TimeMixer的短期光伏功率预测方法。首先,利用互信息(Mutual Information, MI)筛选出关键气象特征。其次,为降低数据异质性,提出特征聚类算法(Fusion Multi-View Hierarchical Clustering,FMVHC),该算法通过变分模态分解(Variational Mode Decomposition, VMD)完成特征重构,并融合欧氏距离、余弦相似度和皮尔逊相关系数构建综合距离矩阵,改进层次聚类(Hierarchical Clustering, HC),将数据划分为晴天、阴天和雨天三类。随后,为强化模型的自适应建模能力,采用壮丽细尾鹩莺优化算法(Superb Fairy-wren Optimization Algorithm, SFOA)分别对VMD参数和TimeMixer模型的超参数进行双阶段寻优。最后,使用SFOA-TimeMixer模型对三类天气的数据集分别进行预测,以更好地捕捉复杂时序特征,提升预测精度。基于江苏省某光伏电站2022年数据验证,所提方法在三类典型天气条件下均优于其他对比模型,显著提高了模型预测精度。

     

    Abstract: Short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting often suffers from significant prediction errors due to nonlinear variations in meteorological conditions. To address this issue, a novel forecasting method integrating feature clustering with the Superb Fairy-wren Optimization Algorithm-based TimeMixer (SFOA-TimeMixer) is proposed. First, key meteorological features were selected using mutual information (MI) to reduce irrelevant inputs. To mitigate data heterogeneity, a feature clustering algorithm, FMVHC, was developed. This algorithm reconstructs features using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and constructs a composite distance matrix by integrating Euclidean distance, cosine similarity, and Pearson correlation coefficient. An improved hierarchical clustering approach then categorizes daily data into three typical weather types: sunny, cloudy, and rainy. Next, a dual-stage optimization strategy is employed to enhance the adaptive modeling capability of the forecasting framework. The SFOA algorithm is applied separately to optimize both the VMD parameters for feature reconstruction and the hyperparameters of the TimeMixer model. Finally, the SFOA-TimeMixer model performs separate predictions for the datasets of the three weather categories, enabling more accurate capture of complex temporal patterns. The method was validated using 2022 data from a PV power station in Jiangsu Province. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms other comparative models across all three weather conditions, significantly improving prediction accuracy. The integration of feature clustering and dual-stage optimization effectively addresses the challenges of nonlinear meteorological variations and heterogeneous data in short-term PV power forecasting, providing a robust framework for practical deployment in PV generation management.

     

/

返回文章
返回