基于静态脆弱性与客流因素耦合的大型明清古建筑(群)综合安全风险评估方法

A Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment Method for Large Ming-Qing Ancient Building Complexes Based on Coupling of Static Vulnerability and Dynamic Exposure

  • 摘要: 为系统评估大型明清古建筑(群)在开放运营条件下的综合安全风险,本文以868 栋古建筑为对象,构建静态脆弱性与客流因素耦合的综合安全风险评估方法。首先,采用熵权-TOPSIS方法评价古建筑静态脆弱性;依据2000—2019年历史客流数据与法定节假日规定划分7类典型运营情景,并引入游客聚集程度、内部可达性和建筑面积修正系数表征客流因素;进一步通过聚类分别实现闭馆情景与开放运营情景的风险等级划分。结果表明,建筑复杂性(熵权0.297)和文物数量(熵权0.215)是影响静态脆弱性的主要因素;客流因素引入后,综合风险等级结构及空间分布均发生变化;依据6 个开放运营情景的等级变化特征,可将868栋古建筑划分为稳态高风险型、等级跃升型和稳态中低风险型3 类。进一步选取SDD、ZBG和NSS 3 处典型区域开展防范对策推演,区域平均综合风险下降3.54%—15.62%,客流控制适用于常规游览区,纵深防护适用于馆藏密集区,基础防护提升适用于非开放区域。研究可为大型古建筑(群)综合安全风险评估与差异化防范对策提供方法参考。

     

    Abstract: Large Ming-Qing ancient building complexes serve as critical material carriers of Chinese civilization, embodying profound historical, cultural, and social value, and have long been operating under conditions of intense public visitation. The superposition of high-density visitor flows with the complex spatial layout, abundant cultural relics, and inherent structural vulnerability of such complexes generates safety risks with pronounced spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics. Although the increasing intensity of open-operation activities has rendered traditional static vulnerability evaluation increasingly inadequate, existing studies on ancient building safety risk assessment have largely focused on individual buildings or small clusters, lacking systematic methods for large complexes containing more than 800 buildings, and rarely couple visitor dynamic effects with static vulnerability in a unified framework. Consequently, this escalating risk landscape underscores the critical need for a comprehensive assessment approach that simultaneously characterizes static vulnerability and dynamic exposure mechanisms. In this context, this paper presents a comprehensive design and application of a coupling-based comprehensive safety risk assessment method tailored for large Ming-Qing ancient building complexes, with a focus on 868 ancient buildings within the Palace Museum. The study begins by analyzing the current state of ancient building risk assessment and the limitations of existing static-only methods to firmly establish the necessity for a coupling-based assessment framework. The proposed method is systematically designed around a “disaster risk framework with static-dynamic coupling” architecture, logically structured into four cohesive components: a Static Vulnerability Evaluation Component that applies the entropy-weight TOPSIS model to seven indicators spanning structural complexity, number of cultural relics, functional attribute, management and security personnel, enclosure-cordon level, security-system level, and fire-protection level; a Visitor-Flow Factor Component that defines seven typical operating scenarios based on 20-year (2000–2019) daily visitor records and China’s statutory holiday regulations, and characterizes visitor-flow effects through a scenario visitor-flow intensity coefficient, a per-building influence weight derived from visitor-aggregation degree and building accessibility, and a building floor-area correction coefficient; a Comprehensive Risk Calculation Component that couples the two through a multiplicative form and obtains four risk grades through dual K-means clustering—classifying the closed-day scenario and the six open-operation scenarios with two separately calibrated threshold sets; and a Response-Type Identification Component that classifies each building’s grade trajectory across all open scenarios. Application of the proposed method to the 868 ancient buildings of the Palace Museum yields concrete and quantitatively verifiable results: the entropy weights identify structural complexity (0.297) and number of cultural relics (0.215) as the dominant factors of static vulnerability; the 868 buildings are systematically classified into three response types based on the trajectory of their risk grade across the six open-operation scenarios—persistently in Grade I–II (Stable High, 357 buildings, 41.1%), grade-elevating across the Ⅰ–Ⅱ / Ⅲ–Ⅳ boundary (Quickly Escalating, 94 buildings, 10.8%), and persistently in Grade III–IV (Stable Low-Medium, 417 buildings, 48.1%); the quickly-escalating buildings represent the new category of buildings that dynamic assessment is able to identify but static assessment alone cannot. To validate the practical value of the method, three representative regions corresponding to dense large halls with peak visitor flow (SDD), nested courtyards with dense exhibited cultural relics (ZBG), and closed-to-public offices and storage (NSS) are selected as case studies, and differentiated countermeasures are designed and deduced for each, achieving regional average comprehensive risk reductions of 15.62, 12.43, and 3.54 percentage points respectively, with the regional average risk grade dropping from Grade I to Grade III for SDD, from Grade II to Grade III for ZBG, and remaining at Grade III for NSS. In conclusion, this paper presents a robust and detailed methodology for the comprehensive safety risk assessment of large Ming-Qing ancient building complexes, providing methodological support for the shift from single-grade control toward typological control that simultaneously considers static vulnerability and dynamic exposure mechanisms, and serving as a quantitative basis for advancing the differentiated safety management of cultural heritage sites worldwide. Future work will be directed toward incorporating real-time visitor flow monitoring for adaptive risk evaluation and extending the framework to multi-hazard simulations beyond visitor-driven safety risks.

     

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